Confessions of a Social Tools Architect
27 Jun
Facebook applications are experiencing tremendous growth, for better or worst. It’s not often we get to look at a set of truly astonishing numbers compressed into such a short period of time. InsideFacebook, a blog that has grown to be near the center of this emerging world, has a summary on the growth in the past month.
We’ve gathered data from all the top apps on Facebook now that we’re one month into Platform, and one thing’s clear: Facebook applications have taken off like wildfire. In fact, to the tune of 65 million net application installs over the course of the past 30 days. That’s an average of 2.5 installed applications per every registered Facebook user. And I may even be missing some.
20 applications now sport over 1 million Facebook users. 35 more have over 100,000.Source: InsideFacebook, “Facebook users add 65 million apps in first month - average of 2.5 per person”
While most are intrigued by the opportunity, it’s not entirely clear if the universe of applications will ultimately serve as a platform for doing business. Some companies, however, aren’t waiting to find out. So far, there have already been 2 acquisitions for Facebook applications. ReadWriteWeb outlines these purchases noting that, so far, the cited reasons are largely to acquire users or talent. The conclusion puts a finger on the pulse of this matter:
So will Facebook acquisitions continue? I think that’s probably highly likely. With more than 38,000 developers already using the Facebook Developer app (which helps you create applications for the platform), buying popular apps is a good way for companies looking to get into the Facebook ecosystem to screen developers. And with the Facebook platform continuing to grow in popularity among its rapidly expanding user base, it seems inevitable that companies will try to buy their way to the top, especially given the relatively cheap price of purchasing Facebook apps (Favorite Peeps, for example, was had for only just over US 4 cents per user).
Source: ReadWriteWeb, “Facebook Acquisitions: Fad or Proof of Platform Success?”
I’m not sure that I would expect the valuation for users to remain consistently low. If anything, would estimate that as the nature of applications evolve into, well, more traditional applications, and developers loose their stage fright regarding monetizing their actions, that the lifetime value of a user will increase significantly. I can say for sure we’re making that bet.
Technorati Tags: f8, facebook, facebook applications, facebook+applications, ilike, monetization, slide
19 Jun
Just a short month ago, Facebook made its new development platform, F8, open to the public and with it came the beginnings of a cottage industry of micro application development. The success stories are quite amazing, no matter what scale you consider it at. On the one hand, there are a dozen or so apps with 1M+ users already and growing. On the other hand, there are hundreds of applications that have been adopted by many thousand users. As an application developer, the notion of launching an application built in just a few weeks and seeing huge adoption is both exciting and frightening at the same time.
Of course, getting that many “users” in that short a period of time is somewhat suspect, no matter how you count it. We’re more accustomed to this type of growth in things are are either highly fashionable (think Tamagachi, ipods) or highly utilitarian (think vaccines, technologies). In certain circles, software, services, and the combination of the two) are often trumpeted by waves of early adopters. It’s this particular pocket that’s most curious.
Paul Kedrosky raises the specter of this in his recent post, “Option F and the Facebook 500,000″:
Around this time last year Josh Kopelman came up with the idea of the Techcrunch chasm. The root idea is/was that too many companies were targeting the then-53,651 readers of Mike A’s popular Techcrunch blog. A good review in Techcrunch, as Josh pointed out, gets you 5-25k beta users, and then you’re stuck.
I’m wondering if something similar isn’t happening in Facebook. I keep hearing about companies that are exercising “Option F” and launching a Facebook version of their app, only to suddenly have 500,000 users. But for how long? I’m betting, pace the Techcrunch chasm, that those people are an ephemeral crew, and that they try pretty much anything, and then drop it again.
I see that behavior quite clearly in my Facebook news feed. People all add one app; people all drop that app. Repeat, repeat, repeat. This is not a mainstream audience, nor does it seem to have much permanence. It’s just tire-kickers and try-ers.
Indeed, there probably is a great deal of tire-kicking going on with loads of applications, but the rate of decay is not clear. While it’s not a bad bet that something which grows with meteoric rates will burn back down to something much smaller over time, the unique circumstances of Facebook applications may work to preserve the scale. Specifically, while other applications build their audiences, they require that we, the user, go to a variety of different destinations to participate. With Facebook, we largely broadcast our usage and the stream of incidents that define our involvement. This town-sqaure, gossip-oriented model seem to create a different set of wrappers on how we approach our usage:
I think with time we will know quite a bit more about the usage patterns and the usage intervals, but for now, it’s an interesting new pasture that we’ve been given to graze in.
Technorati Tags: f8, facebook, paul kedrosky